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In the areas surveyed, the winter harvest of wheat has been less than last year. The data of this reporting cycle shows a hike in wheat prices and lower-than-last-year food stocks. This confirms last bulletin’s prediction of lesser yield. So far, vulnerable populations do not appear to have resorted to negative or irreversible coping mechanisms on a noticeable scale, though.
On the other hand, the maize crop, which is a significant component of the diet in the hills and mountains, is due in August. Further, the monsoon has reached the Western parts of the country and the paddy season is on course. Both factors should mitigate the near to long term shocks of the poor winter harvest.
The conflict certainly continues to impede movement of people and commodities in and out of District Headquarters. Yet, so far, conclusive evidence that this leads to lower local production or consumption levels has not materialized through this survey.